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Threat Assessment of Future Climate Change to China's Seed Plants
Category: Seed Plants , Posted on: 2024/3/29 10:30:58

This document is a research paper on the assessment of the threat levels to China's seed plants under future climate change scenarios, with the following core content:
  • Research Background: Future climate change is one of the significant threats facing global biodiversity and poses challenges to the stability of ecosystems. There is a global consensus on prioritizing the conservation of threatened species, and a comprehensive list of threatened species is crucial for biodiversity conservation.
  • Research Methodology: Based on distribution data of 28,450 seed plant species in China, species distribution models were used to predict future distribution areas and calculate changes in area. Using the IUCN Red List's A3c criteria, the threat levels of seed plants under future climate change scenarios were assessed, and the list of threatened species was updated.
  • Research Findings: Under three future climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585) and three species dispersal scenarios (full dispersal, dispersal of 20 km every decade, and no dispersal), the number of threatened seed plants ranges from 4,444 to 11,467, accounting for 12.9% to 33.2% of the total number of China's seed plants. Among these, 1,878 to 4,330 are woody species (14.8% to 34.1% of all woody plants), 2,566 to 7,137 are herbaceous species (11.7% to 32.7% of all herbaceous species), and 2,962 to 3,915 species are categorized as data deficient (8.5% to 11.3% of all China's seed plant species).
  • Updated List: Integrating the assessment results with the existing list of threatened species, a new list of threatened seed plant species in China was proposed, containing 34,550 species.
  • Discussion and Recommendations: The study emphasizes the impact of future climate change on biodiversity conservation and suggests targeted conservation measures for species threatened by future climate change, such as conservation area planning, determining conservation priorities, and ex-situ conservation.
  • Funding Information: The research was funded by the National Key R&D Program and the National Natural Science Foundation of China.
  • Author Information: The paper's authors include Jiahui Meng, Yu Cui, Ao Luo, Yong Yang, Haining Qin, Keping Ma, Jingyun Fang and Zhiheng Wang, affiliated with the Institute of Ecology, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University; College of Life Sciences, Nanjing Forestry University; and the Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences.
  • Publication Information: The paper was published in the journal "Science China: Life Sciences," with an online first publication date of March 23, 2024.

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